Most Americans Expect a Recession. Should You Still Buy a House?

Should You Wait for a Recession To Buy a Home?

Homebuyers are watching the economy closely right now, and it makes sense. A home is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll ever make. So when you hear recession talk on the news or online, it’s easy to second guess your plans.

A recent LendingTree survey found almost 2 in 3 Americans think a recession is coming, and 74% say that’s impacting their financial decisions.

But here’s the twist: most economists aren’t nearly as worried.

Most Americans Expect a Recession. Most Experts Don’t.

According to an October Wall Street Journal report, only 1 in 3 economists think we’ll see a recession in the next 12 months.

So if the experts aren’t panicking, do you need to?

Right now:

• We’re not in a recession.

• There’s no guarantee we’re heading into one.

• What we really have is uncertainty.

And the best way to handle uncertainty isn’t fear, it’s facts – and a plan that fits your life.

What Actually Matters More Than the Headlines

Economic cycles come and go. The reasons people move don’t change much:

• Growing families

• New jobs

• Retirement

• Divorce or separation

• Wanting to be closer to loved ones

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, sums it up well: buyers who are moving now are usually driven by real-life needs, not just market timing. And that’s the lens you should be using too.

If your life is telling you it’s time to move, the real question is: are you financially stable enough to do it safely?

Key #1: Job and Income Stability

If you’re thinking about buying during economic uncertainty, your job situation matters more than any headline.

You want to feel confident that:

• Your income is steady

• You’ve got an emergency fund (ideally 3–6 months of expenses)

• You can afford your payment even if things shift a bit

If that foundation is solid, you don’t automatically need to wait. But you do need to be smart about how you buy.

Economists at Redfin recommend a few non-negotiables:

1. Set a Real Budget – and Stick to It

Don’t stretch to the top of what a lender says you “qualify” for.

Build in room for:

• Property taxes

• Insurance (which has been trending up in many areas)

• HOA dues (if applicable)

• Utilities and maintenance

Then, commit to staying inside that number. Comfort beats bragging rights every time.

2. Use Your Negotiating Power

With more homes on the market and some buyers sitting things out, you have more leverage than you’ve had in years.

You may be able to negotiate:

• Purchase price

• Seller credits toward closing costs

• Repairs or concessions after inspection

• Flexible closing or move-in timelines

This is where a sharp agent earns their keep.

3. Be Strategic About Rates and Payments

Rates move. That’s normal. Don’t wait around hoping to “time it perfectly.”

Instead:

• Work with a lender to see exactly what today’s rate means for your monthly payment

• Ask about refinancing options if rates drop later

• Explore rate buydowns or credits if it makes sense for your situation

If the payment works for you now, and you can improve it down the road with a refi, that’s a win.

4. If You Already Own, Consider Selling First

If you’re buying and selling at the same time, carrying two mortgages is where things can get dicey in a shaky economy.

Selling first can:

• Lock in your net proceeds

• Clarify your budget for the next home

• Reduce stress and financial risk

Talk with your agent about temporary housing options or rent-backs if timing is tight.

Build the Right Team Around You

Buying during uncertain times isn’t about being fearless. It’s about having the right people in your corner.

Bankrate puts it simply: if you’re financially stable, buying can still make sense – as long as you’re working with pros who know the local market and how to protect you.

Your core team should include:

• A local real estate agent who understands your market, not just national headlines

• A trusted lender who can coach you through numbers, loan options, and scenarios

They’ll help you pressure-test your plan and make sure the move you’re making actually fits your situation.

Bottom Line

Most Americans think a recession is coming. Most experts don’t.

You don’t have to put your whole life on hold waiting for a “perfect” economy that may never show up. If:

• Your job is stable

• Your finances are solid

• You have a real-life reason to move

…you can absolutely move forward. The key is to do it with a clear budget, a smart strategy, and the right pros by your side.

If uncertainty has been holding you back, it’s time to talk it through with a local agent and lender who can walk you through your options – using real numbers, not fear.